Contents
Secrets of Freemasonry
George Mortimer Pullman
News From The Chapters
The French In Rhode Island
Books of Interest to Masons
Guess Who's Coming To Lodge
Jerry Marsengill, F.P.S. Editor
2714 Park Place
Des Moines, Iowa 50312
Alphonse Cerza, F.P.S. Life Assoc. Editor
237 Millbridge Road
Riverside, Illinois 60546
John Black Vrooman, F.P.S., Life Editor Emeritus
P.O. Box 402
St Louis, Missouri 63166
OFFICERS
Dwight L. Smith F.P.S. President
157 Banta Street
Franklin, Indiana 46131
Robert L. Dillard Jr. F.P.S. First Vice Pres.
P.O. Box 1850
Dallas, Texas 75221
Bruce H. Hunt F.P.S. Second Vice Pres.
P.O. Box 188
Kirksville, Missouri 63501
S. Brent Morris, F.P.S. Executive Secretary
5449 Ring Dove Lane
Columbia, Maryland 21044
John Mauk Hilliard, F.P.S. Treasurer
535 West 110th Street, Aprt. PH2
New York, New York 10025
Ronald E. Heaton, F.P.S. Treasurer Emeritus
728 Haws Avenue
Norristown, Pennsylvania 19401
LIVING PAST PRESIDENTS
Philalethes Society
Lee E. Wells
Alphonse Cerza, F.P.S. (Life)
Dr Charles Gottshall Reigner, F.P.S.
Judge Robert H. Gollmar, F.P.S.
William R. Denslow, F.P.S.
Robert V. Osborne F.P.S.
Eugene S. Hopp F.P.S.
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY EMERITUS
Carl R. Greisen, F.P.S.
CONTENTS
Proposed Amendments to the By-Laws of the Philalethes Society
The Next Step
Secrets of Freemasonry
George Mortimer Pullman
The Apprentice
It Seems To Me
The French In Rhode Island
Books of Interest to Masons
Guess Who's Coming To Lodge?
After January first, 1982 Life Memberships will be $150.00. If you send yours in now to our secretary, you can still purchase a Life Membership for the bargain price of only $100.00.
----o----
Proposed Amendments
to the By-Laws of the
Philalethes Society
To the Brethren of the Philalethes Society:
At the Annual Meeting of the Society in February 1981, the following amendments to the By-Laws of the Society were proposed and approved by the Executive Committee.
1. Amend Section 5.2 to read:
"Members shall pay annual dues of ten dollars, due the first day
of January each year.
This amendment is necessary because of the recent increase in postage (particularly in the second class rates) and the ever rising costs of printing. It is essential that we maintain an adequate income so that we can
guarantee the continued quality of The Philalethes magazine.
The joining fee would continue as $5.00.
2. Amend Section 7.a to read:
"Each year there shall be elected a President, a First Vice President, a Second Vice President, an Executive Secretary and a Treasurer." The effect of this amendment is to reduce the term of office from three years to one year. It was felt that nine years, the typical time from Second Vice President through President, was too much of a demand on our Officers. With this amendment, it will also be possible to involve a greater number of Members in the running of the Society.
As required by Section 14 of our By-Laws and Article VII of our Constitutions, ballots must be sent to the Executive Secretary in a sealed envelope marked "BALLOT," and a two-thirds majority of those voting is required for approval. The ballots shall be counted on September 15, 1981.
S. Brent Morris, F.P.S.
Executive Secretary
BALLOT
Amendment No. 1
___ Yes ____ No
Amendment No. 2
___ Yes ____ No
Proposed Amendments to the By-Laws of the PHILALETHES SOCIETY
----o----
Special Offer!
Friends -
Here is a once in a lifetime chance to add to your Masonic Library. The Philalethes Society is discontinuing the maintenance of extensive files of back issues, and is now disposing of the surplus. Normally $1.00 each, over 200 magazines constitute a complete file. However, it is now possible to purchase one each of all remaining issues (about 150) for $50.00!!!
These issues contain a wealth of information on Freemasonry, and provide a mirror that reflects the craft during the last several decades. Once these back issues are gone, they will not be available from us. Take advantage of this offer now, and your library (or that of your Lodge, Consistory, etc.) will have an invaluable addition.
Send $50.00 plus $8.00 * for shipping to:
Dr. S. Brent Morris, F.P.S.
5449 Ring Dove Lane
Columbia, MD 21044
* Foreign Members please send $13.00 for shipping.
----o----
The Next Step
by Allan D. Parsons, MPS
The fact that you are reading this issue of the Philalethes Magazine is evidence enough that you are seeking more light in Masonry. You are learning something about the fraternity that you didn't know before. The Philalethes have two important purposes: (1) "to seek more light" - which you are doing; and (2) "to impart more light" - which, by doing, you can help others to become better informed Masons and therefore better Masons.
How can you impart more light even though you do not have ample time for original research and writing? The answer is by sharing this copy of the Philalethes Magazine with your friends and acquaintances. When you have read the informative articles in this issue take this copy to Lodge with you and point out some of the things you've learned about the history of Masonry, about distinguished Masons, about what Masonic scholars have and are continually learning about "the greatest way of life yet devised by man."
Grand Masters, Worshipful Masters, members in line and side-liners all who have joined the Philalethes Society have done so to fortify their knowledge of the Craft. Some do by digging up generally unknown facts and writing for others; others do by reading what fellow members have submitted to the editor.
Better yet, look over the last few issues of this magazine, refresh your memory of the facts you've added to your fund of Masonic knowledge, and show your brother Masons how they can become better informed and thus better Masons.
Talk to those who have not yet become Masons. You'll find that they want to know what Masonry is and what Masons do. Once you open such conversations you can answer the questions you'll be asked - because you have sought more light and can impart it. Chances are they will want you to sponsor them for membership in your Lodge.
Members of the Philalethes Society have a great opportunity not only to further the cause of the Society but also to help Masonry grow and spread the faith. Now that you've read this far we are confident you agree with what you've read. The next step is to carry out these beliefs. You will, won't you?
----o----
by Peter Lawall, MPS
An old Greek philosopher, when asked what he regarded as the most valuable quality to win and the most difficult to keep, replied "To be secret and silent". So it is in Freemasonry. However, it seems so often, in masonry, that exactly what is to be secret is a secret. Depending with whom you're speaking, a masonic secret can be anything from professing membership to the obligations. Thus the question: At what point is the line drawn? What is absolutely privileged information and what is merely somewhat confidential And what is to be considered light to be shared with all mankind?
History has shown it sometimes expedient for absolute secrecy. During the Inquisition membership meant torture or death. During the anti-masonic movement in this country, a mason was shunned and cast out where he once was welcome. German masons in Hitler's time so feared the wrath of the Nazi party they adopted their own unique lapel pin for identification.
The fact that we are a society possessing secrets is what usually inflamed those groups against us. The Bull of Pope Clement XII in 1738 stated "Great mischiefs generally accrue from these kind of societies". Each of the later five papal bulls reinforced that logic. However, none of those bulls prohibited societies whose membership was limited to members of the Roman Catholic church. And the Bull of Pius-IX against secret societies was delivered in a secret consistory.
In justice to the Roman Catholic Church it must be said that, so far as is known, did not participate in the anti-masonic tirade of 1826-40, but many of the Protestant churches did. The attacks of that time were based largely on the extreme and unjustifiable interpretation which abounded in some of the works of Mackey and other supposed authorities who pretended to trace Freemasonry not only from the Ancient Mysteries but from the most repulsive forms of ancient religions known as sexworship and tending to make over the simple moral doctrines of Freemasonry into magism, theosophy, and occultism. This total mis-conception of masonic secrets led to a form of Inquisition in this country of immense proportions.
History has shown that this ignorance caused thousands to suffer and die.
In the 1300's, Knight Templars were accused of denying Christ and participating in pagan rituals and, as a result, were arrested, tortured and finally burned over slow fires.
Peter Torrubia, Grand Inquisitor of Spain, entered the order for the express purpose of betraying it. He had 97 members of the fraternity seized and tortured on the rack.
Maria Theresa, having been unable to discover the secrets of the craft, issued a decree to arrest all members, but the measure was frustrated by the Emperor, Joseph I, who was himself a mason.
Through all of this a definite pattern or rule failed to emerge that would, for all time, set the limits of our silence.
John Coutsos, a past master in both England and France, when imprisoned by the Spanish Inquisition, told his interrogators everything but the signs of recognition and obligations. The fact that they did not believe him is not as relevant as the fact that, when finally freed, his brethren concurred with his logic as to what must be kept secret. But when George M. Dallas and over 20 Pennsylvania masons were hauled into the Pennsylvania General Assembly in 1836 and questioned about the order they told them nothing. They also were considered correct in the opinion of their brethren.
History, therefore, does not dictate an easy answer of the extent to which our affairs are to be secret.
Recorded annuals do, however, report of the many, many instances where women lacked the ability to keep secrets. Hence the reason for their being denied membership.
Actually, if the profane had any real interest he would discover that whatever he wanted to know of ritual could readily be found written word for word in texts authored by masons who abandoned the craft.
It does not seem reasonable, though, that simply because total secrecy cannot be achieved, the effort should be discontinued. It is utterly harmless to us to have had a few non-masons read our ritual. The ritual is not our function. The letter alone is empty.
The secret of Freemasonry is a secret to everyone. It is a secret because masonry cannot be defined anymore than God can be defined. For to define brings limitations, establishes boundaries. The real secret of Freemasonry, like the secret of life, is known in varying degrees to those who seek it, serve it, and live it. It has no boundaries and none must ever be imposed.
A man does not normally choose to tell any random listener of his personal philosophy regarding a supreme being because he does not normally choose to debate the merits of that philosophy with one who might be incapable of understanding it. The extent of his faith is kept his secret, but his conduct as a result of that faith clearly shows the depths of it.
Likewise in masonry, there is a purpose for secrecy, and as the times may require, the extent of it may vary. But our purpose, our function, is not simply to keep secrets. Secrets, for us, exist as a method of teaching, and it is done in this manner because it is the nature of man to seek what is hidden and to desire what is forbidden. The ritual only reinforces our real purpose which is aimed solely at the brotherhood of man and the absolute supremacy of God.
The original purpose of this discourse was to establish the definite secrets of Freemasonry. Reading available texts and correspondence with Grand Secretaries has yielded only what has been offered. It would appear that all I have proven is that definite lines establishing that which is secret, that which might be shared, and that which should be shared, cannot be drawn.
That which is secret remains a secret. I would like to end this paper with passages I found interesting but could not fluidly use.
Proverbs 25:09
"Do not disclose anothers secrets; lest he who hears you bring shame upon
you and your ill repute have no end."
Ecclesiastes 12:14
"For God will bring every deed into judgement, with every secret thing, whether good or evil."
Mark 4:11
"To you has been given the secret of the kingdom of God, but for those outside everything is in parables so that they may indeed see but not perceive, and may indeed hear but not understand."
Mark 4:22
"For there is nothing hid except to be made manifest; nor is anything secret except come to light."
----o----
American Pioneer In Travel Comfort
by Thomas E. Rigas, MPS
Sleeping cars on American railroads were usually called Pullmans in honor of George Mortimer Pullman, who designed and built the first successful sleeping cars in America more than a hundred years ago.
Pullman was a member of Renovation Lodge No. 97 AF & AM at Albion, New York.
He was born at Brocton, New York in 1831 and when 17 years of age he joined his elder brother in the cabinet making business at Albion, New York, before moving to Chicago in 1859 to build entire blocks of brick and stone buildings.
During his travels in 1858 he became dissatisfied with discomfort of long distant railway travel and in the only kind of sleeping car then in use - it had narrow, hard bunks, in tiers of three. The following year, he remodeled two old day coaches of the Chicago & Alton Railroad into sleeping cars and thus Pullman founded his company to build "palace" cars. At first he changed regular railroad coaches into sleeping cars, but in 1863 he built the prototype of the present day Pullman car at a cost of $18,000 which had comfortable seats for daytime riding and comfortable beds for night. It was named the "Pioneer A", and with this plush passenger car, George Pullman fulfilled the dream of providing long distant travel comfort to the nation. "As though sitting in their parlors", thus would Americans travel in trains to come, said a seer of the 1860's; they would "sleep and eat on board them with more ease and comfort than...on a first-class steamer." The ingenious George Pullman provided the comfort that was long in coming.
The "Pioneer A" joined President Lincoln's funeral train and carried his family to the funeral in this car. It also wafted President U.S. Grant homeward, and a later model joined other plush Pullmans to pamper elite guests on the first through train coast to coast.
In 1867 George Pullman organized the Pullman Palace Car Company, and this extremely successful enterprise became pre-eminent in the manufacture and operation of sleeping cars. Competitors withered as Pullman built dining cars, parlor cars, vestibule cars - and the town of Pullman, now a part of Chicago. Everywhere, station platforms and tracks too wide or narrow for Pullmans were rebuilt to a gauge now standard nationwide. By 1893, the company employed 14,500 workers and had total earnings of $11.4 million on assets of $62 million.
In 1880 George Pullman began converting a swamp south of Chicago into an industrial town of 1,400 dwelling units, with factories to employ some 4,000 workers who rented the houses. The production of Pullman cars was centered there and by 1893 more than 5,500 workers were employed there. This unique industrial community boasted of handsome public buildings, excellent sanitation, a landscaped square, a playground and athletic area, a generous planting of trees, plus an arcade, a hotel, church, school, theater, shaded walks and gardens - but not one saloon - all of which made Pullman, Illinois, according to a newspaper in 1883, "the most perfect city in the world." As a proud Freemason George Pullman had thoughtfully provided in the center of the famous town, adequate facilities to house various Masonic bodies and activities. Among these were the Palace Lodge AF & AM; Pullman Chapter RAM; and, Woodlawn-Imperial Council R & SM, which worked in those facilities for many years before relocating due to the changing character of the immediate environs. Yet all the advantages of this fine community did not forestall the now famous 1894 Pullman labor strike when the company cut wags but not rents. A forerunner of today's planned towns, Pullman was soon swallowed by the encroaching metropolis of Chicago. But as a community - and a National Historic Landmark - it lives on today. Pullman's use of landscaping and a small park was in step with another trend: urban park planning.
George Pullman died in 1897, but his company continued to grow. Until 1947, the Pullman Company operated all sleeping cars and nearly all parlor cars on American railroads, collected separate fares from passengers, and paid the railroad companies to include the Pullman cars on trains. In 1947, fifty-nine railroad companies bought the Pullman Company. Today most sleeping cars are owned by separate railroads. Although most people still refer to sleeping cars as "Pullmans," the Pullman Company no longer manufactures them.
George Pullman was an ingenious businessman and devoted Freemason who helped America become great.
----o----
by Robert Shumar, MPS
There were young men, who without being apprenticed, received a certain amount of training and who as they gained experience were rewarded with higher wages.
Relatives might teach another relative the trade without any method of indenture.
Information that is available shows that there were few Masons' apprentices in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. In most cases the term Apprentice does not even occur. The earliest case can be found in the Exeter Cathedral fabric rolls in 1382.
In the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries apprentices were to be found in one of three ways.
1. To Master Masons in charge of building construction.
2. To a journeyman permanently in the service of Church or State.
3. To a builder - employer, such as an Abbey who could arrange for Craftsmen to teach them.
In 1356, The London Masons' regulations closely resembled the municipalities for other trades at that particular period, thus they required seven years apprenticeship.
Before the fifteenth century, apprenticeship among Masons was practically unknown. During that period most Masons appear to have learned their trade without any formal training.
It is unlikely that apprentices were taken on a seven year basis prior to the last half of the fourteenth century.
The apprentices had to work very hard in the early days, for instance, in Germany, the (Steinmetzen) a hundred years ago laid stress on their apprentices at that time. They required them to serve five years (being the ordinary term).
According to the Regius and Cooke Manuscripts, the Steinmetzen had a form of greeting and maybe a grip which apprentices were forbidden to reveal.
In the days of which we speak an apprentice (Stonemason) starting off had to prove himself before he could advance to the next succeeding grade. Generally, it took seven or more years. They had to live with the Master whom they served. The Master was responsible for lodging, food and clothing. He was taught to use the maul, the chisel and why, and all of the tools that were being used by the Craft at that time.
The term apprentice means learner or beginner, one who is taking his first step toward mastering a trade or some type of a profession. The operative apprentice was a boy from twelve to fifteen years of age. He had to come recommended by Masons who were already members of the Craft.
The apprentice gave his solemn promise to learn the rules, laws and to keep the secrets that were entrusted to him. He was obligated and bound over to one of the more experienced Masters. As was previously mentioned he lived with this Master Mason and from him learned the methods and secrets of the Craft. After a time when he was able to prove his fitness to master the art or craft he was endeavoring to learn, as well as becoming an acceptable member of society, his name was entered on the books and he was given the term Entered Apprentice.
This apprenticeship generally lasted seven or more years. He had to learn the rules, regulations, and laws by which the apprentice was governed. In other words he had to be in complete obedience to the Master Mason to whom he was bound or indentured.
Andersons' Constitutions of 1723 states that (In the constitutions of 1723 the term Entered Apprentice makes its first appearance.) the Entered apprentices were charged at their making not to be thieves or thieves maintainers, that they should travel honestly for their pay and love their fellows as themselves, and be true to the King of England, to the Realm and to the Lodge. So we can very easily see that strict obedience was required from the very start and not only obedience, but also the love of God, the King, the Realm, and the Craft. A person was carefully investigated before he was even considered to be accepted as an apprentice.
Andersons' Constitutions of 1738 states that "no Master should take an apprentice that is not the son of honest parents, a perfect youth without maim or defect in his body and capable of learning the mysteries of the Art, so that the Lords may be well served and the Craft not despised, that when of age and expert, he may become an Entered Apprentice." We can readily see that the apprentice had to apply himself very closely to the business of learning the Art. He not only had to be honest and of good report, but his parents also had to be of good report. The apprenticeship is a very responsible position. It is like a building somewhat, you have to have a foundation before you can start erecting the building itself. As an apprentice you are on the road toward the ultimate goal of becoming a Master Mason. As is so often said, first things first. After the required amount of time you will have the opportunity of proving yourself, as one must prove oneself before he can be advanced to the next grade. The Master under which he works at times may seem like a hard taskmaster, but not necessarily so. The Master has the responsibility of transferring his knowledge acquired after many years to another. It is up to the Apprentice to learn all that he can, when he can and be ready and willing to serve at any given opportunity. It takes a lot of time to be proficient in the Crafts' labors just as it does in your daily work. So Apprentice, keep pushing onward and after a while your goal will be in sight, and finally attained.
Genesis of Freemasonry
Andersons' Constitutions
----o----
by John Black Vrooman, FPS
THAT the real purpose and activity of the Philalethes Society is now rapidly coming to fruition - Masonic study, interpretation and application of the principles of Freemasonry to our everyday life.
At the Annual Feast of the Society, special emphasis and stress was given to the traditions, interpretation and practical application of tenets of the Fraternity to our individual lives. It emphasized Masonic Research and study; the HOW and WHY of research, and methods of getting our members interested in and active in research.
The beauties of our Craft cannot be too sharply brought to the minds of our members. Each individual has a duty to make Freemasonry real and to apply its principles to his own and his neighbors' lives. Masonry is seen by others in the light of the actions of each of us. It is necessary, therefore, to make their image of Masonry such that it will give a good opinion and objective to all who view it. It pays to advertise - but it must be good advertising.
Local Chapters are growing, in numbers, in influence and in activity. They have not yet reached their greatest point of success, but are in the embryo stage, and like a garden, need more cultivating. Local Chapters should emphasize a number of things - first, the fellowship which always is found among Masons; a desire to learn more about Freemasonry, and above all, Masonic leadership that will show the novice the ways and means of studying Freemasonry.
Most of all, we need leaders who will show the way and outline methods and outlines of How To Do Masonic Research. Many want to study, but few know how it can be done. It is the task of the leaders of our Craft to impart the knowledge that will enable each member to study and improve himself. Hopefully, too, each Local Chapter will send to our editor a copy of papers presented at its meetings.
----o----
Retreat To Victory - Philalethes Style
The line of march wasn't toward San Jacinto, and the Mexican Army wasn't in pursuit. In a sense, however, some of those patriots of the Texas War of Independence were also in the vanguard of this march - for they founded Texas Freemasonry, and, in turn, inspired continuing Masonic research and study - and the founding of the Southwest Chapter of the Philalethes Society.
On this Memorial Day weekend in May, the retreat was led by 15 Philalethes members, and the goal was the Lazy Hills Guest Ranch, near Kerrville, in the heart of the Texas hill country. The victory lay in the successful two-day period of fellowship, discussion and Masonic learning.
Organized by the Southwest Chapter, the group included two Texas District Deputy Grand Masters, one Blue Friar, the Master and Junior Warden of the Texas Lodge of Research, one other current Master, and several current and past Grand Lodge officers and Committeemen. All members of the group were members of the Philalethes Society and of the Texas Lodge of Research - by the time they left the retreat.
Format of the basic discussion periods was reasonably simple, and only semi-structured. Chapter Secretary Jack Kelly served as moderator, and the meeting took the form of a round table discussion. At the beginning, each participant proposed a subject or subjects - a total of 15. That participant then took the lead in introducing the subject and indicating the direction the discussion should take.
A total of ten ladies and a number of children were included in the group. At the opening of both the Saturday and the Sunday sessions, the families took part, with a Memorial Day program being presented on Saturday, and a Devotional service on Sunday morning. Travelogue slide shows were presented in the evenings to the family groups. At other times, the families were excused to participate in other activities, including a visit to the Texas State Arts and Crafts Festival in Kerrville.
A surprisingly wide range of topics was selected by the Brethren for discussion during the Retreat. Subjects included:
- Symbolism - Its Place in Masonry
- The Texas Endowed Membership System
- Masonry and the Catholic Church
- Recruitment of Members
- International Masonic Relations (as related to Mexican Masonry)
- In Whose Name do We Pray?
- Holding the Order Together
- The Need for more Masons in Public Life
- Prince Hall/Black Masonry
- Group Insurance for Lodges
- Lodge Officer Training Programs
- The Texas Masonic Home and School - Its Future
- Leadership - A Certain Sound
- Charting the Future of Southwest Chapter
Discussions were lively, frank, controversial, highly informative. Where disagreement existed, participants disagreed agreeably. At the end, the group was unanimous in its opinion that the word "retreat" has now taken on a new connotation. This one, at least, was a victory for Freemasonry.
----o----
Mike Addams Becomes Fifth President
Of Masonic Study Group
On May 17 at the Annual Meeting of the Tennessee Valley Chapter, Philalethes Society, Michael E. Addams was elected to lead the chapter for the next year. John C. Dodd, Past Grand Secretary of the Grand Lodge was elected First Vice President; James L. Gossett, Second Vice President; and Daniel W. Box, steward. Thomas F. Craig, was re-elected Secretary/ Treasurer.
----o----
Western Reserve Chapter Reports
Western Reserve Chapter met in its formal, quarterly dinner meeting at the Al Koran Shrine Mosque in Cleveland, Ohio, on June 5, 1981, with Jerry Marsengill, F.P.S., as its guest speaker on the subject of proper research methodology and publication preparation. New chapter president, William F. Koeckert, M.P.S., presented Marsengill with a gift copy of "Frontier Cornerstone", a history of the Grand Lodge of Ohio by Allen E. Roberts, F.P.S., during the discussion period in the boardroom of the Cleveland Masonic Library Association.
----o----
Article No. LIII
Part 2 of 2 Parts
by Norris G. Abbott, Jr.
Part II
Washington and Rochambeau with their aides, met in Hartford, Connecticut "in secret" on September 21, 1780. Washington was accompanied by Generals Knox * and Lafayette and Alexander Hamilton. It is said that the meeting was not without conflict but Rochambeau's mature judgement and patient nature cleared the way so that when they met again any jealousy or pique was pushed into the background, resulting in a decision to march together to Williamsburg. On this march Washington paid one of his rare visits to Mt. Vernon while in command of the army, and it is significant that Rochambeau accompanied him. The decision to by-pass New York was influenced by information received that Cornwallis had moved his whole army into Virginia and the French Admiral de Grasse was about to bring a powerful fleet of 28 ships of the line and 3300 land troops, up from the West Indies. (6)
During the occupation of Newport, another development occured that deserves mention, namely, the relationship between the local Masonic Lodge and the visitors from overseas. After the arrival of the French troops, the Brethren of King David's Lodge joined in the universal example of good will and friendship, exhibited by the entire populace. Those of the allied army and navy who were already members of the Craft were received into the Masonic fellowship of the Lodge and some eighteen French officers took their vows, at its altar and were admitted as members. Only nine days after arrival of the French fleet we find the following on the pages of the record of King David's Lodge: "Voted, that any person who produces sufficient credentials as a Modern Mason and is desirous to be admitted among us as an Ancient Mason, he shall have the privilege of being admitted as far as he was in the Modern Way. Gratis." Among the admitted candidates was John Lewis DeSybille *,
Count Rochambeau's secretary.
On Friday, November 17, 1780 appeared the first issue of the Gazette Francois, a small weekly newspaper, printed on a press brought over on the "Neptune", one of the vessels in the French fleet. Several publications in their native language were issued during the stay in Newport. Of chief interest for the Masonic student is the following translation of a notice that appeared in the No. 6 issue of the paper. "Newport, December 8, 1780. The Free and Accepted Masons are invited to assemble at the home of Mr. John Lawton, near the Town Hall, on Wednesday next, the anniversary of the Feast of St. John, at exactly 3 o'clock in the afternoon in accordance with their vote.
By the order of the Worshipful Master John Hardy, Secretary"
The only file of the Gazette Francois known to be extant, consists of seven issues held by the Rhode Island Historical Society, whose librarian, Howard M. Chapin, wrote, "The Gazette Francois is interesting from many angles; bibliographical, historical and typographical. It is perhaps the first service newspaper ever published by an expeditionary force, and so a forerunner of the ‘Stars and Stripes’ of World war I. It is one of the few newspapers published in America during the Revolution and is the only one printed in French."
Another meeting between Washington and Rochambeanm occurred in the spring of 1781 in Wetherfield, Connecticut where agreement was reached that the two armies would meet at North River for the march south. With this decision made, Rochambeau and his men prepared to leave Newport and Providence was being made ready to receive them. The main body of the French forces arrived early in June, having come up the river from Bristol to what the French called "a little town at the bottom of the bay, called Providence." The troops encamped on the plain near the West Burial Grounds (7) and their baggage and munitions were stored in the Old Market House. (8) Rochambeau stayed at the house of Deputy Governor Jabez Bowent * (9) and Baron de Viomenil *, the second in command, was made welcome at the Joseph Brown * House at 50 South Main Street.
'The French could not remain long in Providence. In fact they left early in the morning of June 18, 1781 for a fifteen mile match to Waterman Tavern in Coventry, Rhode Island. It was a hard march because of the heat and many fainted along the road. One man in five carried a bottle of vinegar which was used to kill the malaria germs in the drinking water. The French cavalry, from Lauzin’s * Legion, which Rochambeau had quartered in Lebanon, Connecticut because of the high price of forage in Providence, took a parallel road along the coast to guard against a possible surprise attack by the British. The two armies were united at Dobbs Ferry and remained along the shore of the Hudson River where they trained for several weeks. Eventually Yorktown was reached, Cornwallis was entrapped, the battle was won and this phase of the war was over. When the British surrendered, they did so to the Americans and to the French. When the treaty was signed it was signed for the Americans by Washington, Rochambeau and De Barras.
The French stayed for a while between the York and James Rivers near Williamsburg and then started north, making a brief stop in Philadelphia where a gala victory Ball was held on June 15, 1782.
From the diary of Peter Stephen Duponceau * (10) we learn more about the qualities of the French soldier which earned enthusiastic commendation from all who observed their daily behavior. "The Army of Rochambeau, in its march from Newport to Yorktown was so thoroughly well conducted that there was not even a single instance of one of the soldiers taking an apple or a peach from an orchard without leave having been previously obtained. It was given out in General Orders that if a Frenchman should have a dispute with an American, the Frenchman should be punished, whether he was in the right or wrong, and this rule was strictly adhered to. I believe there is no example of anything similar in history."
That this conduct was widely appreciated is evident from an address made to Count Rochambeau in Philadelphia by a deputation of Friends: "General, it is not for thy military qualities that we come to make thee this visit. We make no account of talents for war; but thou art the friend of man and thine army lives in perfect order and discipline. It is this that leads us to pay thee our respects."
As the French returned through New England on their way to Boston, they stopped for awhile in Providence and established their camp as they had done in 1781, on the western outskirts of the town. Conditions, however, were not so pleasant for when they were last there it was June and this time it was November and bitterly cold In fact, as their record states, "the tents were frozen stiff and after the pegs and poles were removed to take them down, they stood alone." This unpleasant situation was further complicated by the refusal of the land owner to agree to the cutting of wood on his property. After a few days the troops were moved into "barracks in a wood" standing in an area then called North Providence, near North Street, which in 1894, was renamed Rochambeau Avenue. (11) Here they remained until Admiral Vaudreuil's ships were ready to receive them.
Like any army on the move, there were some who were sick and from time to time death took its toll. Those who died while encamped in Providence were buried in the southwest corner of the North Burial Grounds. The number, however, is unknown for the record of burials was not started until 1847. While in camp, the troops soon discovered the old Pidge Tavern near the corner of North Main and Lafayette Streets, The Inn was once known as Lafayette House since the Marquise is said to have slept there and the flat boulder in front of the house was used by him as a mounting block. Before leaving Providence, Rochambeau entertained at Hacker's Hall on South Main Street, near Power. It was reported by the Providence Gazette that "a very splendid ball was given by His Excellency, Count Rochambeau to the Ladies and Gentlemen of the town. (12) Apparently there were many balls for from the memoirs of Count Segur * we learn, "M. de Rochambeau, desirous of proving to the last moment, by his private conduct, how anxious he was to secure the affection of the Americans, and be regretted by them gave several balls and assemblies at Providence which were attended by all the neighborhood within ten leagues of the city."
On December first, the camp was broken, Rochambeau left for Annapolis to board the frigate "Emeraude" on which he left for France on January 14, 1883. The command of the army he turned over to Baron de Viomenil.
The Count received a heroes welcome upon arriving in his homeland and it is typical of the man that the compliments he received from his King, he begged to share with Count de Grasse.
Meanwhile, the troops, divided into four divisions, took off on a three day march to Boston, which is described by Count Segur: "Before we entered Boston our troops changed their dress in the open air and appeared in a short time in such excellent attire that it seemed incredible that this army, coming from Yorktown, could have travelled over many hundred leagues of counties and been exposed to all the inclemencies of a rainy autumn and a premature winter". The martial strains of their music was the first that had been heard from a band by the citizens since the evacuation of Boston in 1776. The entrance into Boston, by the troops, on December 7 was brilliant in the highest degree. They embarked on the day before Christmas for the West Indies where the fighting between the French and the British has been underway for some time.
A French vessel, the Fantasque, was anchored in the Seekonk River, not far from the French camp in "North Providence". It harbored one company from each of the four regiments. It was also used as a hospital ship. This vessel, in bad repair, did not join Count de Vaudreuils' fleet, as planned, and remained on the river until February 1785. Thus French soldiers were to be seen in Providence for another two months after the departure of the main body of the troops.
Louis XVI made many mistakes during his lifetime but his planning of the French Expeditionary Force was not one of them: first, by appointing Rochambeau as commander and, second, by placing him under Washington's command rather than on an equal footing. Perhaps that was a decision that led to victory at Yorktown.
It is appropriate to salute the performances of the officers and the men who served under both Washington and Rochambeau. As to who contributed to the final victory, the French Admiral de Grasse's victory over British Admiral Graves was probably the decisive action that assured success. Without it, the battle of Yorktown could not have been fought. Without Rochambeau and his army, it could not have been won. Without Washington's persistence over the early years in keeping resistence alive, the French troops could not have been there. Each of them played a vital role in achieving ultimate victory.
The close association of mutual respect that developed between the two famous Generals had a definite value and played no small part in the ultimate victory. Their relationship is typified by the following correspondence. Under the date of February 12, 1781 (old style calendar), Rochambeau wrote to his Commander-in-Chief an account of the first celebration of an event which is now honored throughout America and beyond. "Yesterday was Your Excellency's birthday. We have put off celebrating that holiday until today, by reason of the Lord's Day, and we will celebrate it with the sole regret that Your Excellency is not a witness to the gladness of our hearts." On another occasion Washington wrote Rochambeau (February 1, 1784) "We have been contemporaries and fellow laborers in the cause of liberty and we have lived together, as brothers should, in harmonious friendship."
The Count de Clermont-Crevecoeur undoubtedly spoke for many Frenchmen when he said of Newport: "It is perhaps the town in all America where the French received the greatest tokens of friendship from the Americans. I confess that I leave Newport with regret". Many of the French officers as well as some of their men, were desirous of making America their future home. A considerable number returned to Providence and to New York after the march of the army to Boston, concluding not to return to their native land. This desire was undoubtedly a natural sequel to the almost universal and mutual interest and acceptance that occurred in every American community where the French troops were quartered. If it was of sufficient length, it permitted an understanding of their foreign customs and an appreciation of the courtesy and consideration that they demonstrated. This pleasant relationship was further emphasized in 1881 on the occasion of the Centennial Celebration of the surrender of Lord Cornwallis at Yorktown. At the invitation of President Rutherford B. Hayes, following approval by Congress, a large delegation of French descendants of families prominent in the War for Independence, such as Lafayette, Rochambeau, de Grasse, de Barras and others, and of the German General Baron Von Steuben *, came to America to participate in a mammoth gathering at Yorktown. (13) The French delegation then came to R. I. to visit the areas occupied by their ancestors in Newport and Providence.
It was a time for rejoicing - an exchange of pledges of cooperation and the creation of binding friendships between representatives of distant nations of different languages, customs and background, with the expressed hope that such a relationship would continue from generation to generation.
Notes
1. The departure of the British was later characterized by military experts as a strategic error. Newport was a deep water port, easily defensible, with moderate climate and ideally situated to launch an invasion against any other American port.
2. Where the Grand Lodge of Rhode Island was formed in 1791.
3. Abraham Redwood was a Mason and founded the Redwood Library in Newport in 1750. It is said to be the oldest library in America still operating in its original building.
4. Most of which were later recovered though badly damaged.
5. Who later became the first Grand Master of the Grand Lodge of Rhode Island.
6. De Grasse's victories in the West Indies had left only Jamaica, Barbados, and Atigua in British hands.
7. Between Plain and Broad Streets, later known as Hayward Park.
8. A third floor of this building was built in 1797 by St. John's Lodge No. 1 of Providence and for several years was the meeting place of Grand Lodge and other Masonic bodies.
9. Worshipful Master of Saint John's Lodge No. 1 of Providence and later Grand Master of the State. His house was later made into the Manufacturers Hotel from which stage coaches left for Boston. That building was torn down in 1850 and the What Cheer Building was erected. For many years it was the home of Masonry in Providence.
10. Who assisted Baron Von Steuben in preparing his system of army discipline.
11. Rochambeau Avenue, originally laid out in 1685 was known successively as Heamden's Lane, Harrington's Lane and North Street. In 1791 Horse Pasture Lane was constructed from Hearndon's Lane to Olney Street and was later named Camp Street in recognition of the French encampment. On a small triangular plot of land at the junction of Summit Avenue and Brewster Street, named Rochambeau Park, stands a granite marker, recording the event.
12. The invitations were printed on the backs of playing cards because of the scarcity of paper.
13. A monument was erected at Yorktown to commemorate the event. The cornerstone was laid by Masonic custom, by the Grand Master of Virginia, wearing the sash and apron presented to George Washington by Lafayette. He was assisted by the Grand Masters of nearly all of the thirteen original colonies.
Bibliography
The Old Stone Bank History of Rhode Island 1929 - 1944
Rhode Island - Forgotten leader of the Revolutionary Era, John Fitzhugh Millar, 1975
Newport 1639 - 1976, An Historical Sketch, C.P.B. Jefferys, 1976
Rhode Islanders join the War - A Bicentennial Issue, Providence Journal
Streets of the City - an Anecdotal History of Providence, Florence P. Simister, 1968
The French m Rhode Island, John F. Millar, Rhode Island Yearbook, 1974
Notes on Rhode Island an the Revolution, Harold R. Curtis
The Journal of Claude Blanchard, 1780 - 1782
Freemasonry in Rhode Island, Henry W. Rugg, 1891
Rochambeau and the French Troops in Providence, 1780- 2, Howard Willis Preston, 1924
The French an America, Thomas Balch, 1895
Official Program, Washington – Rochambeau Celebration - 1955
Our French Allies, 1778-1881, Edwin M. Stone, 1884
The American Revolution, Claude H. Van Tyne, 1905
The Civic and Architectural Development of Providence, 1636-1950, John H. Cady, 1957
When the French were Here, Stephen Bonsal, 1945
Travels in North America, Marquis de Chastellux, 1828
Rochambeau and Rhode Island, Clairborne de B. Pell, 1954
A Naval History of the American Revolution, Gardner W. Allen, 1913
The British Navy in Adversity Capt. W.M. James, 1926
Names in the War of American Independence, A.T. Mahan, 1913
Masons in Rochambeau's Army, 1780-82, James R. Case
The American Campaigns of Rochambeau's Army, Howard C. Rice, Jr., Anne S.K. Brown, 1972
----o----
Every Member Get a Member
----o----
Al Cerza Reviews Books of Interest to Masons
Two years ago Barbara Franco, curator of collections of the Scottish Rite Museum of Our National Heritage, made a study of Masonic aprons of the distant past. This resulted in an extensive exhibit at the Museum for many months. The great deal of interest indicated in these old aprons induced the Museum in co-operation with The Masonic Book Club to publish a book containing the pictures of these aprons and a brief explanation of the subject.
This 124 page book, with a soft cover, has eight color pictures and 111 black and white pictures of old Masonic aprons, and will be a welcomed addition to the library of every interested Mason.
Available at Eight Dollars a copy from The Museum of Our National Heritage, Attention: Museum Shop, P. O. Box 519, Lexington, Mass. 02173.
The March, 1981 issue of Masonic Square, the fine magazine published in London, England, has many fine short news items and articles of Masonic interest. One of the most interesting items is a word description with many pictures of the Indian Degree Team from Oklahoma. This Masonic magazine is published four times a year.
The subscription rate is $8.00 a year; and it is published by Lewis Masonic Publisher, Terminal House, Shepperton, TW17 8AS, England.
The Cornerstone of the Palace, by Roy H. Clemens, describes the Masonic ceremony of laying the cornerstone of the lolani Palace, in Honolulu, on December 31, 1879. It has a picture of the palace and a picture of King David Kalakaua, an active Mason.
Available at $3.35 a copy, from the Masonic Public Library, 1611 Kewalo St., Honolulu, Hawaii 96822.
There has been reprinted The English Ritual of Craft Freemasonry. This ritual was originally devised by Dr. E. H. Cartwright when he became the founding Master of a lodge in England. Brother Cartwright for years was a devoted student of the Masonic ritual and wrote a commentary of the subject which has been popular ever since its first publication in 1947.
Available at 6.30 English Pounds, from Lewis Masonic Publisher, Terminal House, Shepperton, TWl 7, 8A S. England.
The History of Gate City Lodge No. 2, of Atlanta, Georgia, by Fred L . Williams, Jr., and Fred L. Williams, III, MPS, is an outstanding piece of work and warrants a wide readership. This 150 page, 8 ½ x 11, soft cover book, with many pictures, presents all the pertinent facts about the lodge in a skillful way. The authors started their work in 1973 and they have done a detailed research job and have organized the material well.
The book will prove of great interest to the members of the lodge but there are many parts of the book that will be valuable to Masons living elsewhere. The programs presented by the lodge, the handling of problems as they arose, the biographical sketches of the leaders of the lodge are all worth reading. Anyone preparing a lodge history can profit from studying the format used.
Available at ten dollars a copy from J.N. Richman, Secretary, 87 Park Circle, N.E., Atlanta, Georgia 30305.
Two old-time favorite books have been reprinted by Macoy Publishing & Masonic Supply Co., Inc., P. O . Box 9759, Richmond, Va. 23228. They are: John Sheville and James L. Gould, Guide to the Royal Arch Chapter; the price is $9.65 a copy. Carl H. Claudy, Foreign Countries; the price is $5.65 a copy.
Two Masonic research lodges located in Hong Kong publish joint Transaction, The Paul Charter Lodge No. 5391 and Lodge Cosmopolitan No. 428. The 1979 Transactions contain the following papers: George Draffern, The Mark Degree (reproduced from the 1954 Yearbook of the Grand Lodge of Scotland); J.J. Evans, The Japanese Occupation of Shanghai S.W. Pierre, A Masonic Musical Miscellaea, Tamotsu Murayama, Count Tadasu Hayashi and C. Parsons, Initiation of Viscount Hayashi.
Available at $3.50 a copy, from Chater-Cosmos Lodges, 1 Kenedy Road, Hong Kong.
----o----
The Use of Statistics to Analyze and Predict Lodge Attendance
by S. Brent Morris, FPS
There are three kinds of lies: lies; damned lies; and statistics. Mark Twain
Introduction. Lodge attendance is a perennial matter of concern to Freemasons. We worry about how to increase and how to maintain it. Masters are exhorted to improve on past performances and, in a more immediate problem, Stewards preparing refreshments want to know how many to expect for dinner. In some ways Lodge attendance is like the weather - everyone talks about it, but no one does anything about it.
My interest in this subject began during my year as Senior Warden. One goal I set for myself for my year as Master was to improve attendance, which I soon found, however, to be a difficult goal to state precisely. How do you decide if an improvement occurs? Can long term trends in attendance be detected? How can we recognize past successes and failures in programs? Can we predict future attendance patterns? In the discussion that follows, methods will be presented that will enable you to analyze and predict attendance patterns in your Lodge. These statistics will not be a panacea for your ills, but rather a useful tool for self-analysis.
A Statistician draws a mathematically precise line from an unfounded assumption to a foregone conclusion.
Statistical Calculations. Before outlining these procedures, a few basics must be taken care of. First, these techniques work best for a reasonably healthy Lodge - one that has a pool of at least 20 to 30 members that attend regularly. The weak Lodge that has only a faithful 5 to 10 attending each meeting is not a good candidate for this type of analysis.
Second, the analysis is essentially limited to regularly held meetings. For example, consider a Lodge that meets the second and fourth week of each month. If a special meeting is held every first week, then this data can be included with the regular meetings. However, special meetings held during most first weeks cannot count as regular meetings.
Finally, attendance figures for six consecutive years will be needed, along with some graph paper, a pencil and scratch paper. As an example, we will consider six consecutive years of attendance by members at Patmos Lodge No. 70 of Ellicott City, Maryland, shown in Figure 1. Attendance by visitors will not be considered because it is much too irregular. Patmos Lodge meets on the first and third Tuesdays of all months except July and August. Special meetings are very rarely held, and almost all degree work is held on regular meeting nights.
Ellicott City is an old mill town, now in transition and renovation with a population of 12,000. Nearby is the rapidly growing new town of Columbia, largely young and professional, with a population of 49,000. The membership of Patmos Lodge during this period was about 200, with around 150 members living near enough to attend meetings.
Our model for Lodge attendance supposes that there are four basic components to these figures - Trend, Cycle, Season and Irregularity. Trend is the long term, slowly changing portion of attendance. For example, a Lodge that doesn't gain new members will inevitably show a long term decline in attendance. Cycle, in our case, accounts for the year to year effects of each Master. An energetic Master can overcome a declining trend, and an apathetic Master can dampen the spirits of any Lodge.
Season accounts for recurring annual effects. For example, attendance may drop at the beginning of Spring and rise for the traditional Past Masters' Night. Finally, Irregularity is the "Catch-22" aspect of our model, and allows for one time events, such as bad weather, the retirement of a well liked Secretary and so on. This also gives the statistician a face-saving explanation for any event.
Attendance at Patmos Lodge
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
Year 1:
|
24
|
12
|
15
|
12
|
10
|
19
|
11
|
13
|
10
|
7
|
13
|
13
|
15
|
12
|
15
|
18
|
18
|
11
|
16
|
16
|
|
Year 2:
|
31
|
19
|
16
|
19
|
16
|
18
|
16
|
10
|
18
|
11
|
8
|
11
|
13
|
13
|
15
|
15
|
12
|
16
|
27
|
20
|
|
Year 3:
|
36
|
18
|
20
|
18
|
15
|
16
|
21
|
14
|
26
|
12
|
17
|
31
|
14
|
14
|
16
|
15
|
19
|
13
|
25
|
11
|
|
Year 4:
|
17
|
16
|
19
|
12
|
17
|
9
|
12
|
19
|
13
|
8
|
13
|
22
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
17
|
14
|
|
Year 5:
|
22
|
37
|
14
|
11
|
15
|
19
|
18
|
18
|
17
|
12
|
19
|
12
|
29
|
15
|
20
|
15
|
20
|
15
|
16
|
18
|
|
Year 6:
|
38
|
19
|
19
|
15
|
29
|
20
|
22
|
22
|
32
|
16
|
35
|
30
|
24
|
27
|
22
|
27
|
19
|
21
|
25
|
28
|
Figure 2 illustrates Trend, Cycle and Season.
The first step in our analysis is to make a graph of data versus attendance, and note the average attendance for each year, illustrated in Figure 3. We then apply the technique known to statisticians as "eye-ballin' ". In other words, we see if any patterns are apparent to the eye. In this case, Figure 3 shows a crude wave like pattern with a peak at Year 3 and a valley at Year 4. Further interest items are the several meetings with large attendances.
Out of the 120 meetings being examined here, only 8 had 30 or more members present. Three of these large meetings were installation banquets, when a large attendance is expected. The large attendance during Year 5 was the fiftieth anniversary of our well loved Treasurer as Master of the Lodge, and the Grand Master was present for the ceremonies. The other four large meetings are now unexplained. Of particular interest is Year 6, when four meetings, including the installation banquet had attendances exceeding 30. It's worth looking further at the records of Year 6 to see if some reason can be found for the good attendance.
Next, we want to extract the long term trend of our attendance. This is done by calculating the average attendance for the first three years, 16.25, and plotting this point at the middle of Year 2. Then the average attendance for the last three years is found, 18.98, and plotted at the middle of Year 5. Finally, the Trend line is drawn by connecting the two points. Figure 4 shows the basic data for Patmos Lodge with the Trend line superimposed. In this case, we see a slowly increasing trend in attendance - a positive sign.
With the Trend calculations completed, we now look for the Cycle, or more precisely, Trend and Cycle combined. The Trend-Cycle figures should show us, for each month, the attendance unaffected by Seasonal or Irregular activity. We work under the assumption that over a period of a year the Irregular and Seasonal activity average out to have no effect.
Thus we will choose some month to consider, and, by taking one half a year's attendance before and after and finding the average, we hope to remove Seasonal and Irregular features from the data. This process is repeated for each month and plotted with raw data and Trend line. Note that we cannot compute the Trend-Cycle values for months near the end or beginning of our data, because we cannot get one half of a year of figures before or after the end values.
In the particular case of the Patmos Lodge data, we have twenty meetings a year, which we will assume to be evenly spaced throughout the year (ignoring the fact that meetings are not held during July and August). The first month for which we can make our computations is June of Year 1. Figure 5 illustrates two such computations and Figure 6 shows the Trend-Cycle curve superimposed with the raw data and the Trend line. This type of average is called a centered moving average. Noted that the Trend-Cycle curve is wave-like with a peak in Year 3 and a valley in Year 4.
Finally, before beginning our analysis of past attendance, we need to extract the Seasonal variation. Since our assumption is that
Attendance = (Trend) (Cycle) (Season) (lrregularity),
and we have just calculated Trend-Cycle, division should produce Season-lrregularity figures. Figure 7 shows these calculations for Year 1. These calculations should be made for all six years.
As an example, let's consider the first meeting of each year - installation night. The Season-lrregularity figures are 1.98, 2.08, 1.08, 1.33 and 1.79 respectively. It seems that attendance is up at this meeting, but the exact figure is clouded by the Irregularity factor. However, over the course of 5 years we expect the Irregularity to average out to nothing. Thus, by averaging these figures, we are able to produce a Seasonal factor for the first meeting of the year. Figure 8 shows these calculations and gives a list of Seasonal factors for each regular meeting of the year.
One caution is necessary here:
Calculating Centered Moving Averages
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
| 24 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
| 12 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 31 | 19 | |
Figure 5
extremely high or low figures should be discarded because they probably reflect unusual and non-recurring events. With the Patmos data, we have disregarded several meetings in our Seasonal calculations. A particular example is the second January meeting of Year 5 - the fiftieth anniversary of our Treasurer as Master of the Lodge.
He uses statistics as a drunk uses a lamp post – more for support than lllumination.
Stephen Lang
Analyzing the Past and Predicting the Future. Before we present any techniques of analysis or prediction, a few warnings are in order. The methods we are discussing do not guarantee anything. They are not a magical mirror that enables the owner to unravel the mysteries of the past or divine the secrets of the future. Rather these techniques, when intelligently used, permit us to gain a perspective on attendance, and of more importance, point us in the right directions for deeper inquiry.
The Trend line is the easiest statistic to interpret. Its rise or fall With time indicates long term attendance trends, and probably reflects the growth rate of the Lodge. However, other factors, such as a divisive election or a Temple renovation campaign, can have lasting effects. Average attendance, in the
Calculating Season-lrregularity for Year 1
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 1 |
|
|
|
| Apr (2): |
|
|
|
| May (1): |
|
|
|
| May (2): |
|
|
|
| Jun (1): |
|
|
|
| Jun (2): |
|
|
|
| Sep (1): |
|
|
|
| Sep (2): |
|
|
|
| Oct (1): |
|
|
|
| Oct (2): |
|
|
|
| Nov (1): |
|
|
|
| Nov (2): |
|
|
|
| Dec (1): |
|
|
|
| Dec (2): |
|
|
|
.
Figure 7
absence of other factors, should follow the Trend line.
It must be emphasized that we are discussing a Trend line for a specific period, and it should not be projected forwards or backwards. Each six-year period will have its own trend line and these will vary from period to period. In the case of the Patmos Lodge data, the Trend is increasing; perhaps reflecting the steady influx of new members during this period at a rate of 3-5% a year.
The Trend-Cycle curve takes more effort to interpret than does the Trend line alone. In Year 1 and Year 2, the Trend-Cycle figures are almost flat, and just reflect the long term Trend. Then a slight surge occurs in the first half of Year 3, followed by an even larger dip into Year 4. Finally, we have a steady growth of attendance from the middle of Year 4 through the middle of Year 6, for an increase of over 50%.
Several specific questions come from this data. What happened during Years 3 and 4 to first cause a surge and then an almost 18 month depression of attendance? What happened during Year 6 to continue the remarkable growth in attendance? These questions are important, but should be asked discreetly so as not to bruise any egos or offer any offense. In particular, care must be used in assigning a cause of blame for an attendance decline.
Two general comments are in order here as regards Trend-Cycle curves. First, they are rather slowly changing. Our example's Trend-Cycle curve is stable for usually three to ten meetings before showing any change, and then the change is never more than one. In even the most rapidly changing years, average attendance changed by only four to six. Next, it seems to take a full year to recover from a downturn in attendance. This again emphasizes the inertia associated with these figures.
In planning programs to increase attendance, it would be unwise to expect immediate or large changes. These studies seem to indicate that six to twelve months of preparation are needed before any major change is apparent. This means that for a Master to see more than a temporary jump in his October attendance, he must have steadily scheduled good programs from at least February. In fact, the success of a Master's program is probably best measured by changes in the following year's attendance.
We now turn our attention to the Seasonal figures. These enable us to pinpoint those meetings that seasonally show some deviations from the Trend-Cycle curve. If the deviation is positive, we can try to enhance it; if the deviation is negative, we can try to compensate for it, or at least be prepared for the attendance.
These figures are easy to interpret.
Calculating Seasonal Factors
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
| Year 1: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 2: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 3: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 4: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 5: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Year 6: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Average: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Figure 8
For example, the Seasonal figures for the first meeting in January is 1.65. This means that attendance at installation night is about 65% more than that predicted by the Trend-Cycle curve. In the case of the general Patmos Lodge figures, we're talking about an average attendance of around 16 to 20, so a deviation of less than 15% is too small to concern us. For a Lodge with a larger average attendance, deviations of 5-10% might be significant.
With this view in mind, we can analyze a typical year's attendance with the Seasonal figures, shown in Figure 9. Installation night, with its traditional banquet, has a predictable surge, followed by two normal meetings. The second meeting in February shows a drop, probably explained by the normally bad weather at that time of the year, and then come three normal meetings. April and May are curious in presenting a drop followed by a surge followed by another drop. The drops are probably from the onset of Spring, though the middle surge is rather puzzling.
It is worth noting that the June meetings and the first meeting of September show a predictable slight decrease. probably due to the weather and vacation trips. However, the larger dip for the second meeting of September presents another small puzzle. There is decreased attendance at the last meeting of November which is easily explained by the combination of Thanksgiving and the weather. Finally, election night brings out a few extra members.
If fore-warned is indeed fore-armed, then our Master should be ready to make his plans. He now knows which meetings during the year at his Lodge have traditionally good or bad attendance. Perhaps the best course for an expected poor attendance would be to schedule little business and a brief program. Then devote the bulk of the meeting to fellowship with some special refreshments.
Our last task is to use these techniques to predict future attendance. This is done by first predicting ahead the Trend-Cycle curve, and then multiplying by the Seasonal factor. Prediction ahead of attendance for more than three to six months is dangerous, and it must be remembered that this
Seasonal Figures for Patmos Lodge
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
| 1.65 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 0.77 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 0.84 | 1.13 | 0.64 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
| 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 1.29 | 0.93 |
technique presupposes no major changes in Lodge activities. This means that a very energetic or a completely unenthused Master will make useless the best of predictions.
However, the predictions are still useful as goals to meet or break. Also, as the administrative style of a Master becomes apparent or as some very special event approaches, appropriate prediction adjustments can be made.
With our specific case at hand, a little examination helps in making projections. Note that in the last half of Year 6, attendance is stable and between twenty and thirty. This leads us to project slowing or stablizing of the Trend-Cycle curve for the last half of Year 6. Also, note that by the middle of Year 6 the average attendance is up to 24, which is 16% of the local membership. An average attendance of from 20-30% of the local membership would be exceptional for most Lodges, and this is more reason to think that the growth of the Trend-Cycle curve might be slowing as it approaches these limits.
A further consideration is the past history of attendance. We had growth from Year 1 to Year 3, followed by decline from Year 3 to Year 4 and growth from Year 4 to Year 6. If history repeats itself in this instance, then we should expect a decline from Year 6 to Year 7. We must emphasise, though, that cyclic patterns of this sort are arbitrary and depend more on each individual Master rather than any overwhelming cosmic force.
Figure 10 shows two projections of the Trend-Cycle curve - one "optimistic" and the other "pessimistic". Figure 11 shows these projections coupled with the Seasonal factors to produce predicted attendance ranges. These calculations, though rather tedious, can be made in an evening's time without too much trouble.
One last warning is needed. No person is entirely predictable in their activities, and though group behavior shows more stability than individual behavior, we must not forget that we are dealing with people. Statistics like those discussed here offer only guidelines and suggestions. By analogy, attendance figures may be viewed as a dirty windshield, and these figures as a windshield wiper. Without rational interpretation and thoughtful use, attendance figures are no more useful than a dirty windshield.
Though this be madness,
yet there is method in't.
Shakespeare
Epilog. While the six years discussed here did not immediately precede 1979, my year as Master, the Seasonal factors they produced were about the same as expected for 1979. In particular, they showed an expected drop of 36% in attendance for the second meeting in May. With attendance averaging about 20, that meant I could only expect 12 to 13 to attend. I decided to try to reverse the trend.
First, I received dispensation to move the meeting forward one week to coincide with the 157th birthday of Patmos Lodge. Members and their families were invited to a birthday dinner before Lodge, complete with a cake with 157 candles. After a brief Lodge meeting, families and guests were invited in, our retiring Grand Inspector was presented with a certificate of honorary membership, all twenty-five year members were presented with a certificate and a specially minted lapel pin, and our charter, having just been returned from a preservation and restoration firm, was formally returned to the Lodge.
I can safely report that the trend was broken: we had over 50 members and 60 guests present (up from an expected attendance of 121), and the local paper devoted one-third of the front page to the evening. The only problems were those that every Master hopes to have: we ran out of aprons and chairs!
APPENDIX
There as something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
Mark Twain
Doing it yourself. The equipment necessary to do this sort of analysis is
Future Predictions for Year 7.
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
simple: the six years of attendance figures; pencil; paper; graph paper; and a calculator. Be sure that your attendance figures include only regular meetings (as discussed earlier.)
The two most important statistics to us will be the Trend-Cycle figures and the Seasonal factors. The Trend-Cycle figures give us the average attendance and the way it changes from month to month. They are calculated by finding centered moving averages. The Seasonal factors show us rises and falls from the average attendance, as seen over a period of years.
Step one is to compute centered moving averages. Take the attendance for the first half year from your data (in the case of Patmos Lodge with 20 meetings a year, this is 10 meetings). The next meeting is the first one for which you can compute a centered moving average, as it is the first in our sample to have ten meetings before and after it. The centered moving average for this meeting is found by taking the average of that meeting plus the half year of meetings before and after it.
This procedure is repeated for the next meeting and so on, always taking the average of a meeting plus a half year before and after. You will not be able to find centered moving averages for the first or last half year of data. This process is illustrated in Figure 5.
We now compare each meeting's attendance with the centered moving average for that meeting, and determine if the attendance is above or below average. For example, if the attendance at a meeting was 24 and the centered moving average was 18, then the meeting is 33% above average.
These comparisons produce Season-Irregularity figures. In the case just cited, we find the Season-Irregularity by division: 24 / 18 = 1.33. Rounding off the answers to two decimal places produces sufficient accuracy for our work. These calculations must be made for each centered moving average, and are illustrated for Year 1 in Figure 7.
For our final step, we group Season-Irregularity figures together by meeting, and then take the average. This produces a Seasonal factor for each meeting. It is best to drop exceptionally large or small Season-lrregularity figures before averaging. These calculations are shown in Figure 8 (exceptionally large and small figures are marked through by a line to show that they aren't used in the calculations).
Trend-Cycle figures are best examined as a graph. This will enable you to see their rise and fall as Masters change in your Lodge. It is also easier to extend the curve forward than to project forward a table of raw numbers. After extending the Trend-Cycle curve forward (more than one year is unwise), multiplication of a meeting's projected Trend-Cycle figures by the meeting's Seasonal factor will give you the projected attendance. This is illustrated in Figure 11.